My wife stood frozen on the street corner, afraid to take a step into the intersection.
A car was stopped, waiting for her to go, but no one was waving her along to indicate that the car would remain in place until she crossed the street.
That’s because there was no driver.
It was a Waymo driverless car.
We’re in San Francisco for a couple of weeks, and Waymos are everywhere.
Sometimes you see a passenger in the back. Sometimes they’re in the front, still with no one behind the wheel. And sometimes you see the car cruising the streets absolutely empty.
It’s a weird sight.
So, of course, I had to ride in one.
Here’s what it looked like from the back seat.
Folks are torn about driverless cars. It’s scary to think that no one is behind the wheel to make a snap decision to slam on the brakes or swerve to avoid an obstacle or another car.
But consider that driverless cars don’t get tired, impaired, or distracted by texting or fights with their spouses.
In fact, the data shows that automated driving is far safer than human driving.
Across 100 million miles of travel, self-driving cars resulted in 91% fewer accidents causing serious injuries or fatalities and 80% fewer crashes causing any injury.
Over the long term, this should bring down auto insurance rates, as fewer accidents should occur.
Self-driving cars are especially attractive for female passengers who are traveling alone.
Nearly every parent of a teenage daughter who has had to take an Uber by themselves has tracked them during their ride. When there’s no one else in the car, you don’t have to worry about a creep in the driver’s seat.
Self-driving cars can also help seniors maintain their independence after they are no longer able to drive.
Within 10 years (and probably even sooner), I expect driverless cars to be very common in the United States and other places around the world.
This is a trend that has a long road ahead of it. Investors should consider ways to participate in this wave of the future.
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) is an obvious choice.
The company is a leader in automated driving. I use its self-driving feature all the time, and it works very well. Tesla also has robotaxis in Miami, Austin, Dallas, and Houston, with plans to expand to six more cities in 2026, including Las Vegas, Orlando, and Phoenix.
Uber (NYSE: UBER) expects to operate driverless cars, which is not surprising. Right now, it splits revenue with drivers, but if there’s no driver, there’s no split.
This is unfortunate for the people who make their living driving for Uber. I’ve had many great conversations with interesting people behind the wheel. But the future is coming, and in a few years, an Uber driver may be as hard to find as an honest politician.
The guy who brought you You Don’t Have to Drive an Uber in Retirement is now telling you that you may not be able to drive an Uber in the future, even if you want to.
I mentioned Aurora Innovation (NYSE: AUR) in a Wealthy Retirement article last week on three of the next iconic American companies. Aurora is a maker of self-driving trucks.
If a self-driving car scares you, an 18-wheeler going 60 mph with no one in the cab is probably even more frightening.
However, earlier this year, Aurora reported 250,000 miles driven by its trucks with zero system-attributed collisions and 100% on-time performance. Another automated truck maker, Gatik, reported 60,000 miles driven without incident.
Truck drivers are only permitted to drive for a certain number of hours a day, and they require sleep, food, and bathroom breaks. Self-driving trucks need none of those things. They also don’t get distracted or get mad at the company or the person who just cut them off.
Roads and traffic are going to look a lot different 10 years from now.
Your portfolio should reflect these upcoming changes.
What do you think? Would you get in a car without a driver? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
They can do any worse than the drivers I see on the road everyday!
The should be an improvement!
Marc,
Waymo is by far the leader in automated/driverless driving, not Telsa, so I’m surprised you didn’t mention GGOGL as the best way to participate in this wave of the future. Maybe after they take Waymo public?
I would love to ride in a driverless car sooner if it’s possible. Takes all the worry of having to drive and parking out of the equation. I’ve long thought it would be great. I hope it spreads faster than 10 years from now.
I enjoy driving now but when I am older I will be looking forward to use driverless car. Until then any mistakes will be corrected and I will be riding more perfectly built car. This is the future we have to embrace.
Mark,
Interesting article. Is there an ETF dedicated to driverless vehicles?
to me it is jurisdiction dependent.
I can see this working in a fairly high percentage of North American cities BUT
in India – where a 12 inch gap is taken as a signal for someone to cut into for a lane change / in China / Vietnam etc where there are huge numbers of scooters (gas and electric) and they tend to appear without warning / in Quebec where drivers on the main road are “expected” to provide a gap for people merging etc – there are lots of scenarios for a driverless vehicle to be able to manage. Not quite sure how you do it without ALL vehicles being able to “talk”
Other question is where the car gets its info – construction and alt routes / accident details etc – if they are relying on timely maintenance of info by local people it quality will vary widely
It will also prove a boon also for the disabled but in the UK we have a long way to go with the necessary 5g coverage. It may be fine for cities and urban areas and motorways, but our rural areas are often bereft of even a poor signal. I also wonder about the health impacts of widespread 5g. Then there is the undoubted effect on jobs, especially for the less well educated.
Last week I rode in my Tesla from Columbia, South Carolina to Disney World. My Tesla Y has supervised self driving. I maybe touched the steering wheel one or two times on the entire trip, it found the charging station and backed into a vacant spot. I admit I had to get out and plug in the charger. When i needed to find a restaurant I used GROk and I was given a choice of restaurants of which it delivered me to my choice. I did not have a toll readeer and I contacted GROK and I was rerouted on not toll roads. You must keep your eyes on the road and if you don’t , the car will remind you to keep your eyes on the road. It is hard to believe how this car performs. If you have an EV other than a Tela, good luck on finding working charging stations. The electricity on the trip cost me $146 dollars. To me this is the future.
Clearly and convincingly presented. Thank you. What about the legal implications and the potential to target the “deep pockets” of the companies owning the driverless vehicles/trucks?
I’m all for driverless trucks but I would not get into a driverless car yet. Still too many negative situations not programmed yet.
Of course, I would ride a driverless car. I actually did a couple of times in Austin, Texas. Hopefully the company would continue to perfect the design. I whole heartedly support the concept.it will be here and continue to grow its presence whether we like it or not. So why not accept it.
Their were self driving cars more than a year ago in Long Beach. They are all over now!
I’d engage a lawyer first.
I’m a 68 yo Tesla Model S driver with FSD in the Bay Area. Love it. Will never go back.
Hi Marc,
Firstly, welcome to San Francisco. Waymo has become our second car; we might all downsize our car ownership in the next 5-10 years, at least in cities. Would love to meet for coffee if you are open to it. As a chairman circle member, thank you for your services.
Thanks Deepak. Unfortunately, today is my last day here. I will hopefully be back soon.
Unfortunately unless Tesla is willing to go around all roadways and trim all trees in front of stop signs or other signs that impact driving conditions, there will be accidents. Over months and years, shrubs and trees grow and make stop signs invisible. If the Tesla car cannot see a stop sign, it will not stop. So are we, the public responsible for paying for these problems. I see Musk saying yes, since he keeps uploading costs on to all users of his products due to constraints on his products. I, on the other hand, do not feel obliged to pay a billionaire more money so he can make more money and not pay his equivalent share of taxes. If Tesla cannot keep up the maps on a daily basis, then construction sites and overgrown trees and/or shrubs will be the cause of accidents. A lot of people like driving so they do not want to give the driver less cars their fun.
I am legally blind, having lost my ability to drive a car and the independence that goes along with driving I am waiting for the day when I can purchase a driverless car that will return to me a bit of independence to go to a store or allow me to visit friends or go to church when it suits me. I understand the scary part of seeing a moving car without a driver. I think it might be fun to hear my kids say, “there goes Dad again, look what he’s doing now!”
John M
You got to ride in a Jaguar on top of it all. Not bad. Any thoughts on MicroVision (MVIS) at $0.3778/sh. Bought 250 sh at 0.99/sh a while back, down 62%. Has a strong buy rating.
I would get in a driverless taxi. I’m looking forward to when the technology is available in my area! It is the future and it’s proving to be safer for us!
Its a future we need to embrace. Even though I would NOT allow AI to replace my mind.
Great article Marc…Put order in to buy AUR at 200 day moving avg…