When it comes to energy, oil prices dominate the headlines.
But while the prices at the pump get all the clicks and views, many people overlook America’s other main extractable energy reserve: natural gas.
For the everyday American, natural gas powers your home, lights your stove, and heats your water. It’s also critical for industries like steel manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation.
A number of factors, including an increase in global demand for liquefied natural gas, technological advancements, and U.S. policy support, have contributed to a recent increase in natural gas production.
We’ve seen a 41% increase in natural gas production in the past 10 years alone, which has been a massive boon for domestic energy companies.
One in particular that hit my radar this week was Oneok (NYSE: OKE) – pronounced “one oak.”
Based out of Oklahoma, Oneok is no stranger to the natural gas industry. The company holds a dominant position in natural gas extraction within the central United States.
While Oneok recently added oil and petroleum extract to its revenue makeup, natural gas gathering, processing, and transportation still make up the majority of its operations.
The company currently manages over 50,000 miles of natural gas pipeline. In the third quarter, its total amount of natural gas processed increased by 5% year over year to 3.236 trillion British thermal units per day.
Oneok also sports a respectable 3.7% dividend yield, and the stock is up 56% in the past year.
That’s all great… but we’re here to find out one thing and one thing only: whether Oneok’s dividend is safe or at risk of being cut.
Let’s dig in a little deeper and see what we find out…
First, as always, we need to look at Oneok’s free cash flow growth.
In 2020, Oneok’s free cash flow was a startling -$296 million, but since then, it’s been able to steadily grow its reserve. The estimates for 2024 are above $3 billion – a 7% increase from 2023 – and estimates for 2025 are for 54% growth to over $4.6 billion.
Oneok’s 2023 dividend payout ratio sat at 65%. That was comfortably below our 75% threshold.
However, in January of this year, the company increased its dividend from $0.955 to $0.99 per share. That caused the payout ratio for 2024 to rise to around 79%, which knocks the stock’s grade down a level.
Lastly, when we look at the company’s dividend history, I am happy to say that Oneok hasn’t had any dividend cuts in the past 10 years.
Since 2002, the company has grown its dividend nearly every year without a single cut.
With only one mark against it, I can confidently say that Oneok’s dividend is safe.
Dividend Safety Rating: B
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