Last week, a reader requested that I take a look at Organon (NYSE: OGN), which spun off from pharmaceutical giant Merck in 2021.
Organon has hit the ground running with a diverse portfolio of women’s health products, including its flagship product, Nexplanon – a long-acting reversible contraceptive implant. It’s also working on treatments for conditions like endometriosis and polycystic ovary syndrome.
The company is aiming to capitalize on the growing market for biosimilars, which are lower-cost alternatives to biologic drugs. It also has an “established brands” business that produces cash flow from well-known drugs that have lost patent protection.
Overall, Organon has an interesting business model that blends the potential high growth of women’s health and biosimilars with the stability of established brands.
Speaking of high growth, the stock has just about doubled year to date.
But as we’ll see, the financials tell a more complicated story.
First, let’s examine Organon’s enterprise value-to-net asset value (EV/NAV) ratio. As always, this metric gives us a sense of how the market is valuing the company relative to its assets.
Organon’s EV/NAV sits at an eye-popping -1,215.7, which is nearly 11 times worse than the average of -111.2 for companies with negative net assets.
We typically compare our Value Meter stocks with companies that have positive net assets, so you might be wondering why we’re looking at companies with negative net assets today. The reason is simple: It’s not uncommon for younger companies to have more liabilities than assets as they grow and invest in the future, so I wanted to compare Organon with the companies it’s most similar to.
Even so, Organon’s situation is far more extreme than most – especially when you consider its cash flow generation.
In three out of the last four quarters, Organon has burned through cash faster than a California wildfire. On average, its free cash flow was -99.6% of its net assets over those four quarters.
For context, the average for similar companies was just -5.3%. While that’s still not great, it’s a far cry from Organon’s cash bonfire. It’s like comparing a leaky faucet to Niagara Falls.
Organon did, however, manage to report some solid numbers in the first quarter of this year.
Total revenue was up 7%, with all three of the company’s franchises showing growth. Biosimilars revenue grew by a very strong 46%, women’s health revenue rose 12% (led by 34% growth for Nexplanon), and established brands revenue increased 2%.
But despite those promising results, it’s important to step back and look at the bigger picture. And that picture shows a company that’s been struggling mightily with its balance sheet and cash flow.
The Value Meter is focused on the company’s overall financial health, and the road to consistent profitability and positive cash flow looks long and bumpy. Plus, Organon’s extremely negative EV/NAV ratio and cash burn rate are simply too glaring to overlook.
Of course, none of this means Organon is a lost cause. But it does mean that at current prices, investors might be paying too high of a premium for its shares.
The Value Meter rates this one “Slightly Overvalued”… but it’s dangerously close to crossing into “Extremely Overvalued” territory.
What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.