Take Advantage of the Coming Panic

Marc Lichtenfeld

I arrived in Washington, D.C. last Wednesday, less than 24 hours after the election. It was all anyone wanted to talk about.

Supporters of President Obama celebrated. Opponents lamented and debates raged on. The election may be over, but there’s still a deep divide among the American population.

Fortunately, the President and House Speaker John Boehner have softened their tones in the aftermath of election season rhetoric. And they appear to understand the need to work together to prevent the fiscal cliff from taking place.

If you’re unfamiliar with the details of the fiscal cliff – unless an agreement is made, on January 1, the Bush-era tax cuts expire. That means income tax rates, taxes on dividends and capital gains, and estate taxes go up. And they’ll rise considerably.

Drastic spending cuts will also take place, which will significantly hurt the economy.

The top income tax rate will increase from 36% to 39.6%. Estate taxes will rise from 35% on amounts above $5 million to 55% above $1 million. Taxes on dividends will climb from 15% to the investor’s ordinary income tax rate.

And that means income investors will see their taxes on dividends more than double if they’re in the top tax bracket.

Obama likely won’t agree to any deal unless taxes increase, in order to generate more revenue. Boehner likely won’t agree to any increase in income tax rates on the top earners. But in this new era of compromise, that doesn’t mean we’re at a stalemate.

How a Compromise Will Affect Your Income

What I believe is the most likely scenario is that Republicans and the President will agree to an increase in the dividend and capital gains tax.

That will hit the wealthiest Americans harder than the middle class, which is what President Obama wants. But it won’t increase the taxes on earnings (either from a job or a business) – a critical component of Republicans’ argument that doing so would hurt job growth.

So, if this deal is made, both sides can claim victory in the spirit of compromise.

Of course, the ones who will be hurt are the investors who rely on dividends to supplement their retirement income or to build wealth via dividend reinvestment.

Because the dividend investor will have less money in his pocket after paying taxes, the logical case is that dividend stocks – which have been white hot in this low interest rate environment – will crater.

The theory makes sense. If investors are going to keep less of their income, they’re going to head for the exits in favor of more attractive investments.

The only problem with that argument is that it’s never happened before during periods of higher taxes on dividends.

In fact, quite the opposite is true…

The Truth Inside the Numbers

During periods of higher dividend taxes, dividend stocks actually performed better than when taxes were lower.

I’m not saying higher taxes caused better returns. I don’t believe there’s necessarily a direct correlation. But just as importantly, there’s no historical correlation between higher dividend taxes and lower returns on dividend stocks.

Many studies have shown this to be true.

I ran a similar analysis comparing 104 Perpetual Dividend Raisers – stocks that raise their dividends every year. In this case, they were companies that had a 25-year or more track record of annual dividend raises. I looked at how they performed during 1985 to 2002, when dividends were taxed at ordinary income levels, and from 2002 to 2011, when they were taxed at 15%.

Here are the annualized results.

Price Appreciation Total Return
Perp. Div. Raisers Fully Taxable 13.7% 15.2%
Perp. Div. Raisers 15% Tax 8.1% 9.8%
S&P 500 Fully Taxable 9.6% 11.1%
S&P 500 15% Tax 4.5% 6.1%

Most importantly, the amount that investors got to keep, even after they paid the higher taxes on their dividends, was still more than when tax rates were lower.

Here’s a table using the above returns net after taxes (assuming the fully taxable rate is 43%, which is what the highest rate will be if we go over the fiscal cliff). If stocks are held over a year, the long-term capital gains tax rate will be 20%, not 43%, so the net after taxes will be higher than the numbers below.

Price Appreciation Net After Taxes Total Return Net After Taxes
Perp. Div. Raisers Fully Taxable 7.8% 8.7%
Perp. Div. Raisers 15% Tax 6.9% 8.3%
S&P 500 Fully Taxable 5.4% 6.3%
S&P 500 15% Tax 3.8% 5.2%

Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting that higher taxes are better for stocks. But I am pointing out that there is no correlation between higher taxes on dividends and poor returns.

Most people don’t realize this.

They naturally assume that a tax increase will tank stocks, and they’ll probably bail on their investments, even the good ones.

But since you’re now armed with the knowledge of how the real world works, you’ll be able to come in like a vulture investor and scoop up their discarded shares at bargain prices.

I suspect we will get a sell-off in the next month or so as investors abandon their holdings. Make a list of quality companies that you’re interested in now so you can jump in and relieve these panicked investors of their safe and rising dividend payers.

Politicians aren’t good for much. But in this case, they may do smart investors a favor and allow them to buy great stocks at better prices and yields.

10 Responses to “Take Advantage of the Coming Panic”

  1. Jeff says:

    The article makes some interesting points but does not go far enough. The stock market has in general performed better when taxes are higher, not because of a fluke, but rather specifically because the economy has grown faster when taxes were higher. In fact, the economy grew more under 12 years of FDR’s new deal than under all the Republican presidents of the last century combined (48 years). This effect is strong enough that even though price to earnings have expanded during low tax years and shrunk during high tax years, the growth effect overpowers the P/E effect.

  2. KB says:

    Hi Marc,

    You mentioned that you performed an analysis comparing 104 Perpetual Dividend Raisers. Would it be possible to obtain this list or point us to a website that has a list of these sought after Dividend Raisers.

    I thoroughly enjoyed your book, “Get Rich with Dividends.” Your explanation of thinking of Dividends as Income or salary, Dividend Growth as a salary increase and Share Price as cost of living is really insightful. I don’t think may investors appreciate the importance of Dividend Growth. Many simply obsess over the share price.

    Thank you,

    KB

  3. Joe Clenney says:

    I relaxed somewhat after reading the informative article. I have had several news letters, but they have performed marginally.I am retired and I am concerned about the investment climate. Can you make some suggestions with specifics that would assuage the effects of the devaluation of the dollar and the ravages of inflation which are two of my main concerns? If you are so inclined, I would appreciate a response. Coach Joe Clenney(Ret.)

  4. Peter Bogdan says:

    Thanks. I had been wondering about the effect on my dividend stocks with a raise in the tax rate. Your article was reassuring. If our dysfunctional Congress can compromise and slowly and carefully adjust entitlements to face reality, and raise taxes on folks like me who will not be effected in my life style or spending by paying more taxes, we may get through this recession and start getting our country back on track.

  5. Ted Mart says:

    Raise the tax on those making over $250,000 or let the law as now expire, I am a registered Republican but im an American first, and yes I voted for obama.

  6. Edward Walsh says:

    I think that this election has doomed most lower class people, those retired, or without jobs. If you have read “Obama’s America” you can understand what he is doing and why.The result will be a 22 trillion deficit besides the over 100 trillion commitments. Israel has been hung out to dry and without a strong USA there may not be any place to go for those under 50 years of age.

  7. [...] and lower stock market returns. You wrote about this in Wealthy Retirement. You showed that stocks outperformed by over five percentage points annually when dividends were fully [...]

  8. Caroline says:

    approx. 1 million drllaos$850 00 invested in 10 year laddered corporate/provincial bondscurrent avg. yield=4.7%=$39 950$150 000 invested in dividend-enhanced tax credit paying securitiescurrent avg. yield= 7.5%=$11 250total earnings=$51 200 – (avg. tax rate of 15.1%= $7 746)= $43 454not much difference in actual cash returned to you after tax, completely different exposure to risk and capital loss. as 85% of your capital is promised to be returned. It’s also completely possible to build and keep the fixed-income portfolio in an RRSP during employed years.when you are retired and hoping to live off about 40-50 thousand a year, your income will no longer be in an upper-income tax bracket. therefore the need to take on excessive tax-incentive based investments is unnecessary to achieve ‘head-spinning’ yield. less tax and lots of money, not bad for a millionaire.IMO it’s easy to believe that equities provide the optimal form of return on capital and growth. It’s harder to not be greedy, to focus first and primarily on capital preservation and be willing to accept less upside. I suppose it’s what works best for the individual investor, but if I work hard and retire with 945 000 drllaos I’d sure like to know that half (or all) of it can’t randomly evaporate.you are absolutely correct that dividends makes sense for those currently employed and earning a salary that puts them in a higher tax-bracket. preferred shares are a relatively secure way to achieve some extra tax relief while working away the hours.bank preferred shares yield about 6.5% now.

  9. [...] the initial knee-jerk reaction will be to send those stocks lower. But as I’ve been shouting from the rooftops lately and in the national media, there is no correlation whatsoever between higher taxes and lower [...]

  10. [...] had any meaningful bearing on stock returns. And what really doesn’t make sense is that dividend-paying stocks did their best during times of higher [...]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

x